The Twilight Zone of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement

The last 10 days or so have been a fascinating time for British politics. Resignations, speeches, interviews, political coups, counter coups and a generally topsy turvy time of intense disagreement with one another when it comes to the issue of our time: Brexit.

Yet despite all this there has been a commonality of thought that has been quite extraordinary when it comes to the arrangement that our Prime Minister Theresa May has reached with the European Union in regards to our withdrawal. That is: both staunch remain voters and passionate brexiter’s believe that the deal that has been secured is shocking. It is therefore in consideration of these views that I decided to read through the 50 page or so (short version) of the draft withdrawal agreement alongside the official political declaration and accompanying notes. Read on for what I have come to understand from the key areas.

The Economy & data

In regards to the economic measures that have been put in place, the indication is that a certain level of protection has been secured for financial services within the deal with a joint commitment ‘to preserving financial stability, market integrity, investor protection and competition, while respecting the Parties’ regulatory and decision-making autonomy’. This is positive for those who work within financial services, a sector which is one of our largest exporters and should help to keep London as the financial centre of Europe and the world.

The agreement goes on to state that there will be ‘level playing field arrangements. . .covering state aid, competition, social and employment standards, environmental standards, climate change and relevant tax matters’. Whilst at its initial base, the idea of a level playing field in regards to something like climate change is welcome, the breadth of the above arrangement is concerning. By keeping a number of countries at the same level there cannot be true autonomy or independence. Whilst this may be fine for now, if the EU was to begin to start lowering its environmental standards for example then the UK could effectively be forced to also lower it standards (without democratic input) to ensure it remained in keeping with the ‘level playing field’.

The political declaration states ‘The United Kingdom will take steps to ensure comparable facilitation of personal data flows to the Union’ however, gives no indication that this will be a reciprocal arrangement in which the UK will have access to EU state data. Not only is the morality of access to another groups data (without a mutual return) questionable, this arrangement would also hand businesses that are based out of EU member states a competitive advantage when it comes to UK consumers. The ambiguity over this undoubtedly opens it up for abuse.

Mobility

Freedom of movement is clearly going to end under this withdrawal arrangement except for the ‘temporary entry and stay of natural persons for business purposes in defined areas’, and other aspects of mobility, based on reciprocity and visa free travel for short term visits (up to 3 months). The irrational fear that seemed apparent amongst some that one would not be able to travel around Europe or go on holiday is of no concern under this deal. Nonetheless, it is of no doubt that if an individual wants to move to live and work in an EU member state a visa would be required and a due process would have to be entered. For those who wanted tighter controls on immigration, this aspect of the withdrawal agreement can be counted as a victory.

Law enforcement and criminal matters

The agreement states that there should remain an ‘Alignment of rules and mechanisms for disputes and enforcement including the role of the Court of Justice of the European Union’. Effectively this will mean that the supreme arbiters of our law will still be a body that is tied into the European Union ensuring that we ultimately would not have true legislative independence because any legislation put forward within the UK could be struck down by a court outside of the UK.

The Northern Ireland Backstop

As has been widely reported, the Northern Ireland backstop is a key problem within this agreement. The explanatory notes make clear the agreement allows for ‘unfettered market access for Northern Ireland products in Great Britain’, sounding positive yes? But it is the reverse which should bring major pause for concern, in that the movement of individual goods from Great Britain to Northern Ireland will require checks, creating a semi cut-off in the UK union. The free movement of goods will be one way if the backstop is activated. This is untenable to all who believe in the Union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and seems to insinuate that Northern Ireland's relationship with the Republic (and thus the rest of the EU) is more important than it relationship with the UK union that it is currently part of.

Looking to the future?

In terms of the structure of ‘institutional arrangements’ the agreement does offer the ‘possibility to review the relationship’ and it states the ‘commencement of the formal process of negotiations as soon as possible after entry into force of the Withdrawal Agreement’. This is positive but the lack of provision of specifics, again opens it to interpretation either way, weakening the UK’s hand for the future.

The legal binding of the deal that has been struck is really concerning in not only being economically disadvantageous but perpetually trapping the UK in a state of limbo with the possibility of transition being extended until 20xx, theoretically keeping the UK in a half way house until 2099! By being signatories to this deal we would effectively be handing the leverage and independence that we currently retain, to the European Commission; and whilst it would would not generally be in the interests of either the UK or EU for this to continue indefinitely, it hands the power to the EU in ensuring that in future negotiations we would not be starting on the same plain and any agreement for the future would be highly skewed in favour of the EU. The deal currently before us threatens the union, removes many of the advantage of being a member of the European Union and locks out the advantages that could be found outside the EU.

It’s clear why no one in the UK political sphere is happy.